Archive for October, 2009


This is the first in a four-part series of posts predicting playoff seedings for the upcoming year.  Of course, predictions usually get made before the season starts, and these predictions are being posted after all teams have already played a few games.  Why?  Because I don’t watch preseason games. It doesn’t tell me enough about the teams playing to be worth my time. (If someone wants to pay me to write this blog, I’ll be happy to watch preseason games.  Until then, I ain’t watchin’ no preseason game.)  I’m not saying that the first 3 or 4 games tell me much of anything about a team, but it can’t hurt to get at least some data about how a team is actually playing.

I begin my analysis by looking at individual players; specifically, stars.  For a team to make the playoffs, it obviously must have balance, depth, and role players.  No question.  But, in general, it also must have at least 1 star.

I don’t see more than 1 or 2 NBA teams making the playoffs that do not have an All-Star on their roster.  I understand that Utah, Chicago, and Philadelphia made the playoffs last year even though they had no All-Stars, but, as a general rule, I think teams need to have All-Stars to make the playoffs.   So, when attempting to pick the playoff teams, I think it makes sense to start by trying to pick the All-Stars.

A useful starting point is last year’s All-Star rosters:

EAST

Allen Iverson (Detroit)

Dwyane Wade (Miami)

LeBron James (Cleveland)

Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Joe Johnson (Atlanta)

Jameer Nelson (Orlando – injured)

Ray Allen (Boston)

Danny Granger (Indiana)

Paul Pierce (Boston)

Chris Bosh (Toronto)

Mo Williams (Cleveland)

Scot Pollard (Boston)

Just kidding.  Scot Pollard was not an All-Star.  I was just looking for an excuse to link to some pictures of Scot Pollard.  Like this one:
Scott Pollard

And this one:

And, oh, most certainly, this one:

Devin Harris (New Jersey)

WEST

Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers)

Chris Paul (New Orleans)

Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Yao Ming (Houston)

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

Shaquille O’Neal (Phoenix)

Brandon Roy (Portland)

Chauncey Billups (Denver)

Pau Gasol (LA Lakers)

David West (New Orleans)

Tony Parker (San Antonio)

I expect this year’s All-Star rosters to be very much the same as last year’s, with a few changes.  I see Derrick Rose making the All-Star team in the East, and probably Gilbert Arenas and Elton Brand, as well, assuming they are healthy.  If that’s right, the roster will be:

Derrick Rose (Chicago)

Dwyane Wade (Miami)

LeBron James (Cleveland)

Kevin Garnett (Boston)

Dwight Howard (Orlando)

Joe Johnson (Atlanta)

Gilbert Arenas (Washington)

Ray Allen (Boston)

Danny Granger (Indiana)

Paul Pierce (Boston)

Chris Bosh (Toronto)

Elton Brand (Philadelphia)

Next 3:  Devin Harris, Michael Redd, Hedo Turkoglu

Sleepers:  Raymond Felton, Jermaine O’Neal

The Western Conference All-Star team will also be very much the same as last year’s, with a few changes.  Shaq has moved to the East, and Yao is out.  I expect Carmelo Anthony to make the All-Star team, and expect Kevin to make a run at it (Blake Griffin, too, if he returns soon).  I also expect Derron Williams to make the team, and, if Tracy McGrady is healthy, he needs to be considered as well.  I will believe that McGrady is back to 100% when I see it, so I’m predicting this All-Star roster:

Kobe Bryant (LA Lakers)

Chris Paul (New Orleans)

Tim Duncan (San Antonio)

Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix)

Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas)

LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland)

Kevin Durant (OK City)

Brandon Roy (Portland)

Carmelo Anthony (Denver)

Pau Gasol (LA Lakers)

David West (New Orleans)

Derron Williams (Utah)

Next 3:  Tony Parker, Al Jefferson, Chauncey Billups

Sleepers: Jeff Green, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby

Part 2 of my 4 part series predicting the playoff teams will be posted tomorrow.

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards

When people talk about positions on a basketball team, they generally refer to a point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center. People generally refer to these positions as if the roles they are associated with are as clearly defined as the roles on, say, a baseball team, where a second baseman is responsible for a different part of the field than a shortstop. Unlike in baseball, however, the differences between some of the positions are not clear – at least they aren’t clear to me.

Can anyone tell me the difference between a shooting guard and a small forward? Some people have tried to, but none have been able to. (I’m also looking to learn what the difference is between a power forward and a center, but I won’t go there for now.) Whenever I have the conversation with someone, the closest I come to getting an answer is that shooting guards are generally good at shooting, and that small forwards are generally good at driving to the basket.

That answer would suffice, if it were accurate. Consider a few specific players, to bring the discussion into focus. Rip Hamilton is generally thought of as a shooting guard (for what it’s worth, his player page on nba.com lists him as a guard). I guess Hamilton is the prototypical shooting guard: he shoots well from the outside, and is not much of a threat to attack off the dribble. In contrast, Gerald Wallace is generally thought of as a small forward (and his player page on nba.com lists him as a forward). I guess he is a prototypical forward: he is a capable scorer, but not a pure “shooter”; nobody expects to see Wallace in the 3-point shootout anytime soon. I don’t think it’s controversial to say that Hamilton is a shooting guard and Wallace is a small forward.

The problem is that it makes no sense to define positions by what players can’t do; it makes no sense to say that a shooting guard is a guy who can’t drive and a small forward is a guy who can’t shoot, because it doesn’t help explain what a shooting guard does differently than a small forward. If I’m an NBA GM trying to build a championship team, I’m not going to want to build my team around one guy who can’t shoot and one guy who can’t drive. Consider a few other players, who can shoot and drive: Paul Pierce. Is he a shooting guard or a small forward? Kobe Bryant. Which one is he? Tracy McGrady? For what it’s worth, nba.com lists Kobe as a guard, Pierce as a forward, and McGrady as a guard-forward. If someone can explain those classifications to me, I’ll be impressed.

I won’t ramble on about this point until I see what people have to say in the responses. For now, I’ll leave it at this: I think it makes much more sense to talk about the standard 5-man-starting lineup as containing one point guard, two wing players, and two post players than it does to talk about shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers. Even if we talk about it as a point guard, two wing players, and two post players, there will be some players who defy classification (Jordan, for example, did plenty of damage from the post). But, to me, that would at least be more descriptive than continuing to use the terms “shooting guard” and “small forward.”

I look forward to reading your comments.

A New Golden Age of Hoops

I’ve been a hoops fan for as long as I can remember. I started to have some clue what was going on in the mid-80’s. I remember watching Magic’s Lakers, Bird’s Celtics, Isiah’s Pistons, and Jordan’s Bulls. Throughout that time, I was rooting for the Knicks.  Around the time I started to have a clue, they were Louis Orr’s Knicks.  They had Pat Cummings, Rory Sparrow, Trent Tucker, Eddie Lee Wilkins, and, if they were lucky, Bernard King.  Then they got Patrick Ewing, and my entire Knicks-fan-experience changed (not a moment too soon, either… I was starting to get to be too old to walk around crying because my favorite basketball team lost another game).

Anyway, the point is that I grew up watching hoops in the 80’s, and  I was generally able to appreciate that it was a special era for the game.  In my opinion, the game became less interesting in the late ‘90s, early ‘00s. I don’t know why.  Maybe it was the void left after Jordan retired. Maybe it had something to do with the Pistons-Pacers brawl that spilled into the stands, or maybe the league over-expanded. (Does anyone really need the Bobcats?) Personally, I blame lots of it on the fact that one of the teams in the league had Barney on its jerseys, but I recognize that there are other contributing factors.

Well, whatever made the game less interesting in the late ‘90s and early ‘00s is behind us now. The NBA is fun to watch again. There are genuine superstars playing the game these days, a bunch of well-balanced teams, and a slew of excellent players who are either winding down or beginning their careers.

Let’s start with the superstars. As I see it, there are four: Kobe, D-Wade, LeBron, and Chris Paul. When is the last time there were four guys either in their primes or entering their primes who were this good? I think it must have been when Jordan was young, Magic and Larry were still doing their thing, and Olajuwon was one of the “Twin Towers” in Houston. The league doesn’t only have super superstars these days, but it also has a bunch of solid teams. Even the East is good. The top team from last year has added Shaq. The Celtics have three Hall-of-Famers, and a collection of young talent. The Magic are loaded. Even the Hawks could be good, if they weren’t the Hawks – dress those guys up in some Bulls uniforms, and you have a contender.

Out West, the Lakers and Spurs both have firepower, play D, and have championship pedigrees. The Mavericks have added Shawn Merion, the Blazers might be on the verge of a breakthrough, and the Nuggets showed that they can beat teams a number of different ways. A team with Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamaire, and Grant Hill might not even make the playoffs. Again.

The point of all this rambling is just to say that the top 9 or 10 teams are about as good as I remember the top 9 or 10 teams being for a long time. I Love This Game!

The flip side of the coin is that there are some teams that are just pathetic. I understand how the salary cap works, and I understand that teams would rather have a real chance to be good in the future rather than remain mediocre for a while. The problem is that some of the teams that just cleared a whole bunch of “cap space” aren’t going to get one of the main guys in 2010, and then they’re going to be horrible for a few years in a row. I’m thinking of the Bucks, the Nets, the Knicks, and the Suns.  Then there are the Kings, who haven’t really been dumping good players to create cap space, and, yet, are terrible.  These guys all think they’re getting LeBron and Bosh to sign with them in 2010?  A few of them are going to get nobody, and are going to have 3 or 4 years of winning 25-35 games. I’ll address that in a separate posting. For now, my only point is that the NBA is compelling again.  So compelling that I decided to start a blog about it.

Welcome

If you are reading this, you are either a friend of mine, a person who read about this blog in one of my postings somewhere else, or someone who simply got lost while navigating your way around the internet. Whatever it is that brings you, welcome.

I have been watching hoops for as long as I can remember, and I used to play hoops for my high school team (read: I sat on the bench for my high school team). I was a ‘tweener – I couldn’t dribble well enough to play point guard, and I didn’t score enough to play shooting guard. Some folks label players like that “scrubs,” but I prefer to think of myself as a ‘tweener (I’ll have a posting soon about the distinction between “scrubs” and ‘tweeners). Anyway, during all of the time I spent watching hoops – whether from my couch watching it on tv, or from my seat on the bench watching my teammates live – I learned lots about the game. And I have lots of opinions. I have spent many hours during my life talking hoops with my friends. Recently, a bunch of them started telling me that I should start a blog. I’m not sure whether they were giving me genuine advice or just trying to help me find a new audience so they don’t have to listen to me anymore. Regardless, they got me thinking about starting a blog, and, well, here it is.

Before I get started, I just want to set a few ground rules. First, don’t be offensive. I’m not here to censor people, and I don’t care about little things like cursing. Let’s all just try to keep the conversation respectful and relatively clean. If you think that someone’s comment is stupid, either ignore it or refute it, but don’t tell him that he’s a #!@’ing bag of #%$ whose mother is a *^%.

Second, respect the anonymity of people who post on the site. There are a few reasons for this:

ONE:  The purpose of this site is to share opinions about basketball players, primarily professional basketball players. Every single player on an NBA roster could crumple me up into the shape of a basketball, and, using that basketball-shaped-human-that-used-to-be-me, shoot more than 70% from the foul line (except Shaq, but his problem would not be during the “crumpling me up into the shape of a basketball” phase of that activity). I’ll sleep a bit better at night if those players don’t know my name.

TWO:  I have millions of female fans around the world. Millions. I have to go to great lengths to keep my contact information secretive; otherwise I would get hundreds of e-mails, phone calls, and personal visits every day. If those millions of females knew that they could find me here, they would crash the site. I don’t feel like paying for more bandwidth, so please just refer to me by my screen-name.

THREE:  I feel quite strongly that people should not be judged based on a google search for their name. It’s one of those many opinions I have. If a stranger ever google searches for my name, I don’t want him to think he knows me because he spent five minutes reading what comes up. I certainly don’t want him to think he knows me because he read some postings I made on my blog.

Other rules may need to be implemented over time, but, for now, the only rules are not to be offensive, and to respect the anonymity of people who post. Basically, this is designed to be a site where hoops fans can go to stay current on current hoopenings (hoop happenings, for those who didn’t catch on), and to jump into a conversation having something to do with hoops. The site has links to sites that cover hoops news, links to sites that sell hoops gear, and links to other blogs about hoops. I’ll try to inject some humor into the posts on the site, but, at bottom, the posts will be designed to start conversations about hoops. (If you’re looking for a more even balance between hoops and comedy, I suggest that you watch the Knicks.  Oh… speaking of the Knicks and comedy… If you want to laugh, watch this video and remember that the Knicks drafted the guy “guarding” Vince Carter.)

Welcome to my site. I hope you visit often, and jump into the conversation.

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